A single anonymous trader made a fortune betting that Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power in Venezuela, earning over $400,000 in a matter of hours. The big profit on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting site, has raised questions about whether someone knew in advance about the secret US operation that captured the Latin American leader straight from his habitat.
$400,000 in a matter of hours
The trader created an account last month and began placing bets on December 27, investing $96 in contracts that would pay out if US invaded Venezuela by January 31, according to the Wall Street Journal. Next week, the person slowly but steadily increased their wagers and focused on contracts predicting Maduro’s removal by the same date. Polymarket data shows the final bet was placed at 9:58 pm ET on Friday, just hours before President Donald Trump started the mission.At the time, the contracts were priced at only 8 cents each, implying just an 8 per cent chance of success.When news of the US action came out, the contracts surged by a huge margin and left the trader with nearly $410,000 in profit from around $34,000 in wagers. More than half of the total bets were made the night before the operation. The account uses a default blockchain address as its screen name.
Was it an inside job?
“It’s more likely than not that this was an insider. That’s a lot of money to put in at that price, without a lot of news,” said Tre Upshaw, founder of Polysights, which provides analytics tools for Polymarket users.The Trump administration reportedly kept the operation secret within a small circle of advisers. It involved coordination across multiple military branches, with 150 warplanes deployed from 20 locations.Democratic leader Ritchie Torres said he plans to introduce a law to stop government officials from betting on prediction markets when they have private information. Polymarket officially blocks Americans, but many users get around the rules using virtual private networks.Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan said self-regulation is pretty relevant now on the platform and users are actively flagging suspicious bets in real time.Coplan said the plan was not carried out in secrecy as it’s not possible: “The moment there is a suspected insider, it’s pointed out on X, and it’s visible on Polymarket immediately. So it’s not like it’s done in darkness.”
