37,000 crore erased in 6 days! IndiGo shares tanked over 16%; here’s what brokerages say

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation, the parent of IndiGo, remained under heavy pressure on Monday, extending a sharp sell-off that has wiped out more than Rs 37,000 crore in market value in less than a week, as operational turmoil rattled investor confidence.The stock slid as much as 10% to Rs 4,842 during intraday trade, marking its seventh consecutive session of losses. Over the past six trading days, InterGlobe shares have fallen 16.4%, reflecting growing concerns over the airline’s handling of revised Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL) and the cascading impact on costs and earnings, ET reported.The sell-off follows one of the most disruptive phases in Indian aviation, with IndiGo grappling to realign crew schedules under the new FDTL norms. A severe pilot shortage triggered widespread cancellations, culminating in more than 1,000 flights being scrapped on a single day—nearly half of the airline’s daily operations—leaving thousands of passengers stranded across major airports.IndiGo, which commands close to 66% of India’s domestic aviation market, has acknowledged planning gaps in adapting to the new regulations, which cap pilots’ night landings and mandate longer weekly rest periods.The turbulence has led brokerages to cut target prices. UBS maintained a Buy rating on InterGlobe Aviation but lowered its target to Rs 6,350, flagging insufficient preparedness for the FDTL rollout and upward revisions to cost estimates for FY26–FY28. The brokerage also factored in higher crew strength requirements and increased operating expenses due to the rupee’s depreciation.Despite near-term headwinds, UBS said the airline’s long-term growth outlook remains intact, supported by international expansion that offers margin stability and a natural hedge against currency pressures, according to ET.Investec retained its Sell rating with a target price of Rs 4,040, highlighting a sharp rise in costs. The brokerage pointed to aviation turbine fuel prices rising 6% quarter-on-quarter and the rupee weakening to 90 against the dollar. It warned that compliance with updated FDTL norms by February 10, 2026, could require around 20% more pilots per aircraft, potentially increasing costs by Rs 0.10 per ASK and cutting profit before tax by nearly 25% if fares are not raised.Jefferies, which continues to rate the stock Buy, cautioned that IndiGo’s cost curve is turning unfavourable as multiple pressures converge. It flagged higher non-fuel costs linked to operational disruptions, possible regulatory action, and rising dollar-denominated expenses such as fuel, leases and maintenance. Reduced pilot productivity under the new norms is also expected to lift employee costs.Regulatory scrutiny has intensified as well. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation has given IndiGo CEO Pieter Elbers an additional 24 hours to respond to a show-cause notice seeking an explanation for the large-scale disruptions and asking why enforcement action should not be initiated under aviation rules.Despite the steep correction, InterGlobe Aviation shares remain up about 7% on a year-to-date basis, underscoring the tension between short-term disruption risks and longer-term growth expectations.