Commodities watch: Gold seen climbing on safe-haven buying; silver may correct after record highs

Gold prices are expected to extend their upward trend in the coming week, supported by safe-haven buying and expectations of policy easing by the US Federal Reserve, while silver may see a phase of consolidation after its recent sharp rally, analysts said.According to news agency PTI, market participants will closely track a series of global macroeconomic indicators, including inflation data from major economies, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, GDP numbers, PMI readings and weekly jobless claims. These data points are expected to offer fresh signals on the future course of US monetary policy.According to Pranav Mer, vice president, EBG – commodity & currency research at JM Financial Services Ltd, investors will also keep an eye on economic data from China, which is particularly important for industrial metals. “Among other developments, US President Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum and the Supreme Court judgement on trade will be most important to watch,” Mer said, as quoted by news agency PTI.On the domestic front, gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) gained Rs 3,698, or 2.7 per cent, over the past week. Prices touched a record high of Rs 1,43,590 per 10 grams on Wednesday before easing slightly.Mer said gold prices were partly supported by a weaker rupee against the US dollar. However, some gains were trimmed on Friday due to profit-booking and long liquidation. “The risk premium eased following the US President’s softer tone on Iran, better-than-expected jobs data, and a firm dollar,” he added.In overseas markets, gold futures on Comex rose by $94.5, or 2.09 per cent, last week. Prices closed at $4,595.4 per ounce on Friday, after hitting a record of $4,650.50 earlier in the week.Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said gold gained more than 2 per cent during the week due to geopolitical risks linked to Iran, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets. He noted that expectations of US rate cuts, a weaker dollar, lower treasury yields and continued central bank buying are supporting prices.Mallya expects gold to move towards Rs 1,46,000 per 10 grams on the MCX and around $4,750 per ounce in global markets in the coming week.Silver, meanwhile, witnessed an exceptional rally. On the MCX, prices jumped nearly 14 per cent, or Rs 35,037, over the week, hitting a record high of Rs 2,92,960 per kilogram. In global markets, silver rose $9.2, or 11.6 per cent, to settle at $88.53 per ounce, after touching a lifetime high of $93.75, reported PTI.Mer said silver’s sharp rise continued despite some profit-taking and consolidation towards the end of the week, following reports that the Trump administration would not impose tariffs on critical miners for now. However, he cautioned that the rally could face a correction as prices approach the $100 per ounce level.Vijay Kuppa, CEO of InCred Money, said both gold and silver remain structurally positive, even though near-term volatility cannot be ruled out, as per PTI. He pointed out that central bank gold purchases, strong ETF inflows, geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to support precious metals as portfolio hedges.Kuppa added that silver’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal, backed by demand from technology, renewable energy and electrification, underpins its long-term outlook. He said short-term corrections after a strong rally are a normal part of the price discovery process and do not necessarily alter the broader trend.