Donald Trump tariffs: Container freight rates likely to remain subdued amid uncertainty; expected to correct 10–15%

Container freight rates are expected to remain subdued for the rest of FY26 as uncertainty in global trade continues, driven by US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies, industry experts said. According to ET, exporters rushed shipments to the US ahead of the August 27 deadline for a steep 50% tariff on Indian goods, targeting the Christmas season.India’s exports to the US rose 18% year-on-year to $40.39 billion during April-August 2025, far outpacing the country’s overall export growth of 2.5% to $184.13 billion in the same period. Meanwhile, China’s exports to India climbed over 10% to $51.57 billion, exceeding India’s overall import growth of 2.14%, reported ET.Ajay Sahai, director general and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said freight rates are likely to see a 10-15% correction due to oversupply amid weakening global demand. “Inflationary pressures are persistent, and the risk of recession in advanced markets could deal a major blow to world trade,” he said, as per ET.The Drewry World Container Index fell 6% sequentially this week to $1,913 per 40ft container, down from more than $4,000 a year ago. On the South East Asia to East Coast North America route, rates dropped to $2,600 per 40ft container from $2,900 ten days earlier and nearly halved from $5,500 a year ago.Bhavik Mota, head of markets (Intra Gulf & Far East, West & Central Asia) at AP Moller – Maersk, said shipments of automotive products have declined sharply, while FMCG exports remain steady and pharmaceuticals are expected to stay resilient. “Exports of shrimp are vulnerable too. With prices climbing for end-consumers due to Trump’s tariffs, this could eventually translate into a larger drop,” he said, as per ET.Smaller Indian exporters are facing the brunt of high US tariffs, with some cancelling orders. “The end consumer will be impacted and it’s going to hurt demand. The large ones are sustaining, but smaller shippers are having problems,” said a senior shipping official.Not all markets are bleak. Improved trade relations with China have supported Indian imports ahead of the Diwali season, with Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index rising 5% sequentially to $611 per 40ft container, reflecting firmer regional trade. However, industry officials warn that unless tariffs on India are eased, long-term pressures on global supply chains could intensify.