Fed call ahead: Central bank eyes third rate cut amid sharp divisions; why follow-up easing looks uncertain

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower borrowing costs this week, but deep divisions within the policy-making panel suggest further rate cuts will be harder to secure, analysts say.Policymakers are set to meet on December 9–10 amid a complicated economic backdrop, with inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target even as hiring weakens and unemployment rises. Economists expect Chair Jerome Powell to back a quarter-point cut — the third this year — though dissent is likely to be unusually high, AP reported.Some analysts believe as many as three officials could vote against the cut, marking the most dissenting votes in six years. Only 12 of the Fed’s 19 rate-setting committee members vote on decisions, and several non-voting officials have also expressed opposition to further easing.“It’s just a really tricky time. Perfectly sensible people can reach different answers,” William English, economist at Yale School of Management and former senior Fed staffer, said, highlighting the challenge of building consensus.The debate has been complicated by sparse official data following the prolonged US government shutdown, which delayed employment and inflation readings. Inflation pressures would normally argue against rate cuts, while signs of labour market weakness point in the opposite direction.Most economists now expect a “hawkish cut” — a rate reduction accompanied by guidance suggesting the Fed may pause to assess economic conditions. Financial markets are increasingly focused on the tone of Powell’s commentary rather than the cut itself.Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid is expected to dissent again in favour of holding rates steady, potentially joined by St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem. Fed governor Stephen Miran may oppose the quarter-point move and instead argue for a larger half-point reduction.Expectations of a December cut firmed after New York Fed president John Williams said the recent rise in inflation appeared to be a temporary effect linked to tariffs, and that he still saw “room for a further adjustment” in rates. Market-implied odds of a cut now stand at about 89%, according to CME Fedwatch.Powell’s leadership is also being tested politically, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised the Fed chair and signalled that a new chair will be appointed when Powell’s term ends in May.While concerns about unemployment — which rose to 4.4% in September — are driving support for a December cut, economists caution that additional easing will depend on upcoming data. The Fed will review a backlog of jobs and inflation reports before its next meeting in January, which could either justify further cuts or compel a pause.