US President Donald Trump on Monday warned India of higher tariffs if it doesn’t cooperate with America on the issue of Russian crude oil imports. The warning comes at a time when Indian exports already face heavy trade penalties in the US market. At present, shipments from India are subject to a 50% tariff, with half of that burden directly tied to India’s ongoing purchases of Russian crude oil.Trump said M Narendra Modi was aware of his dissatisfaction over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, adding that Washington has the ability to swiftly increase tariffs on Indian goods.Trump made the comments while speaking to reporters on Sunday aboard Air Force One as he travelled from Florida to Washington DC.“They wanted to make me happy, basically. Modi is a very good man; he is a good guy. He knew I was not happy, and it was important to make me happy. They do trade and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly. It would be very bad for them,” Trump said.Trump’s comments have also been by senator Lindsey Graham who is advancing a legislation that would impose stringent secondary tariffs on countries that import Russian oil and gas if Moscow does not agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine within a 50 day timeframe.
India’s crude oil imports from Russia & US
India’s crude oil imports from the United States surged by over 92% year-on-year during the first eight months of the current financial year, even as Russia continued to be the country’s largest crude supplier between April and November 2025.Data from the ministry of commerce and industry show that India imported a total of 178.1 million tonnes of crude oil during April to November 2025. Of this, around 60 million tonnes were sourced from Russia and about 13 million tonnes from the US. In the corresponding period a year earlier, total crude imports stood at 165 million tonnes, including 62.4 million tonnes from Russia and only 7.1 million tonnes from the US.As a result, the US share in India’s crude basket rose to 7.6 percent in the current fiscal period from 4.3 percent a year earlier. Russia’s share, meanwhile, declined to 33.7 percent from 37.9 percent over the same comparison period.The full effect of recent US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, both key suppliers to India, is yet to be reflected in official figures. Following Trump sanctions imposed in October on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, large refiners such as Reliance Industries, along with several state owned companies, announced plans to stop buying Russian crude to avoid exposure to secondary sanctions.
Why India Needs To Make Its Stand Clear
According to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) founder Ajay Srivastava imports of Russian crude have not stopped entirely, with lower volumes continuing – leaving India in a strategic grey zone. “This approach may be weakening India’s position. If New Delhi plans to stop Russian oil imports, it should do so clearly and decisively. If it intends to continue buying from non-sanctioned Russian suppliers, it must say so openly and support the stance with data. And if it plans to buy even from sanctioned entities, that choice too must be stated plainly. What no longer works is ambiguity,” he says.India’s decision making is further complicated by the absence of any assurance that stopping Russian oil imports would ease pressure from the Trump administration. “Complicating India’s calculus, there is no guarantee that cutting Russian oil will end US pressure. Even a full stop could shift the US demands to agriculture, dairy, digital trade, and data governance,” GTRI says.India must also factor in that the current use of tariffs as leverage is linked to a particular political phase in the United States and may not persist indefinitely, the think tank says. The European Union, Japan and South Korea opted to ease tensions with Washington by sharply reducing their intake of Russian crude.India’s position differs from China’s, which enjoys greater strategic leverage with the US. Despite being the largest buyer of Russian oil, China has largely been spared American pressure, as Washington is wary of the potential fallout.Although India has significantly increased imports of crude oil and petroleum products from the US, this has not translated into any visible softening of Washington’s stance.“Indian exports to the US have already fallen 20.7% between May and November 2025, and further tariff escalation could trigger a steeper decline. As the tariff threat hardens, India must take a clean call on Russian oil—own that decision, and communicate it unambiguously to Washington,” GTRI concludes.
