Venezuela crisis: Turmoil likely to have limited impact on global oil prices; India Inc insulated

Recent political and military developments in Venezuela are unlikely to have any meaningful impact on global crude oil prices in the near term, or on Indian companies, as the country plays a relatively small role in global oil supply, Crisil Ratings said on Tuesday.In a note, Crisil said that even if the situation in Venezuela worsens and disrupts oil production, the effect on international crude prices would be limited, according to news agency PTI. Venezuela accounts for only about 1.5 per cent of global crude oil supply, which reduces its ability to significantly influence prices.The assessment comes after a US military operation in early January led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on drug-related charges, triggering uncertainty in the oil-rich Latin American nation. Despite holding some of the world’s largest proven crude reserves, Venezuela’s current contribution to global supply remains modest.Crisil pointed out that crude prices have stayed largely steady in recent days, with Brent crude hovering just above $60 a barrel. It added that the developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any material impact on India’s global trade position or the credit quality of Indian companies.India’s direct trade exposure to Venezuela is limited. Imports from the South American country account for less than 0.25 per cent of India’s total imports. Of these, crude oil makes up more than 90 per cent of the roughly Rs 14,000 crore worth of imports recorded in the 2025 financial year, according to PTI. Venezuela supplies about 1 per cent of India’s overall crude oil requirement.While India imports nearly 85 per cent of its crude oil needs and remains sensitive to global price movements, Crisil said the current situation in Venezuela is unlikely to affect oil prices in the near term. However, it flagged a possible longer-term impact if investments flow into Venezuela’s oil sector.“While we do not anticipate any material near-term impact of the Venezuela situation on crude oil prices, investments for increasing crude oil production in Venezuela, which has vast untapped reserves, could boost oil supply globally and lead to softening of crude oil prices over the medium to long term, which could be a positive for India Inc,” Crisil said, as quoted by PTI.India’s exports to Venezuela are also small, standing at below Rs 2,000 crore in fiscal 2025, or less than 0.1 per cent of total exports. These shipments are spread across sectors such as pharmaceuticals, ceramics, textiles and two-wheelers. Pharmaceutical exports were around Rs 900 crore, accounting for less than 0.5 per cent of India’s total pharma exports, while other sectors recorded exports of Rs 80–120 crore each.Crisil said it does not expect any material impact on the credit profiles of Indian companies dealing with Venezuelan customers due to the limited scale of trade, but added that it will continue to closely monitor developments.Meanwhile, the US has indicated that it is actively engaging with Venezuela’s new leadership, with President Donald Trump recently saying that Washington was working “along really well” with Caracas and highlighting ongoing oil shipments to the US.