Who could lead Iran if the regime falls? Here are the possible leaders

An exiled prince and an ex-president were among the top contenders who could ascend to power in Iran if its Islamist regime toppled after over four decades of repressive rule, experts told The New York Post.One name that reemerged was Reza Pahlavi, the former crown prince who fled to the United States in his teens a year before his family’s dynastic rule was overthrown in the revolution of 1979. Pahlavi, 65, who lived in Maryland, cultivated relations with DC officials and the Iranian diaspora.“Pahlavi is a complicated character, but without a doubt he has a certain following inside of the country,” said Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer on the Iran desk.“And nostalgia has increased inside the Islamic Republic,” he added. As the Islamic Republic’s “charisma has cratered, Pahlavi’s standing has grown, if not skyrocketed,” he told The Post.When Pahlavi called for people to protest on January 8 and 9, he got 3.2 million likes and 88 million views on Persian Instagram.The son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the shah from 1941 to 1979, penned an op-ed this week in the Washington Post where he called for a “transition to democracy,” rather than reinstalling a monarchy that fell during the revolution.“I have therefore stepped forward to lead and serve in that capacity: not as a ruler-in-waiting, but as a steward of a national transition to democracy,” he insisted.Some doubted whether someone who had been away for so long could command the necessary support inside the country, but some street protesters called for his return following his call to action.Former President Hassan Rouhani was another figure who could reemerge, experts said. The cleric who served as Iran’s seventh president from 2013 to 2021 was the first Iranian leader to hold direct talks with a US president when he had a phone call with Barack Obama in 2013. He took heat inside the Iranian govt for calls for dialogue with the west.Rouhani was coming under “hard scrutiny” by the regime, according to Iran expert and activist Ali Reza Nourizadeh.“They’re listening to his telephone. They are watching him. So therefore they believe that the Americans are talking with people” inside Iran, he said.Another rumoured potential leader was Sayed Hossain Moussavian. He served as Iran’s ambassador to Germany under President Hashemi Rafsanjani, as spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators from 2003 to 2005, and did a stint at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.Moussavian was one of many members of Rafsanjani’s clique with a well-honed “survival instinct,” said Andrew Apostolou of the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center.Survival of the fittest may also determine the next leader, who could emerge from one of the nation’s over one dozen govt security services.“It’s not going to be a person per se. What forces can come in and take control of the streets?” said Iran scholar Alireza Nader, president and senior adviser of the Nader Research Group in DC. “Ultimately, it’s forces on the ground,” he continued.“As long as the regime sticks together, they’re going to kill a lot of people before it comes to that.”