‘Would be surprised if pact isn’t signed by March’: CEA on India–US trade deal – Here’s all you need to know

NEW DELHI: Calling the India–US trade deal “elusive” but nearing completion, chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said he would be “surprised” if the pact is not sealed by March, further adding that “most issues have been resolved.““I was hoping something would be done by the end of November, but it has turned out to be elusive,” Nageswaran told Bloomberg in an interview. “That’s why it is difficult to give a timeline on this. However, I would be surprised if we don’t have it sealed by the end of the financial year,” he added.A US trade negotiating team is currently in India as both sides work to bridge remaining gaps and push through a deal that would help New Delhi secure relief from Washington’s punitive 50% tariffs. The negotiations intended to conclude the first tranche of the tariff-focused pact, have stretched for months after missing the original fall deadline. Nageswaran said the delay is driven by more than just economics. “I believe this is as much a matter of geopolitics as it is of bilateral trade. Right now, it is very difficult to put a timeline to it,” he added.

‘Weaker rupee not a major problem’

The CEA said that although trade-related uncertainty has influenced GDP projections, the “domestic economy is doing rather well.” He said that India’s recent economic performance has exceeded expectations. “The economy has surprised us with better performance than we anticipated early in the forecast cycle. I will not be surprised if something like this happens for 2026–27 as well,” he stated.Further on the declining Indian currency, Nageswaran said that, “Having a weaker rupee at this point is not a major problem, as it benefits the export sector given global uncertainties.”

US says India offering its ‘best ever’ proposals

At a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing in Washington, US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer said the US has received the “best” offers ever from India in ongoing talks.“They have been very difficult nut to crack… but they have been quite forward leaning… the type of offers that they have been talking to us about … have been the best we have ever received as a country,” he said.Greer noted that resistance persists in India over certain US agricultural products, including row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer is leading the negotiating team in Delhi.

India-US ‘talks progressing’

Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal also signalled movement in the negotiations. “Talks are continuously progressing with them. We are moving forward towards a bilateral trade agreement,” he told reporters in Jaipur.India and the US are currently engaged in two parallel discussions—one on a framework deal focusing on tariffs and another on a broader, comprehensive trade pact. Leaders from both nations had directed officials in February to push for an agreement, with the first tranche originally expected to close by fall 2025.Six rounds of talks have been held so far. The broader goal is to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, from $191 billion at present.The US remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024–25, with bilateral trade totaling $131.84 billion. The US accounts for about 18% of India’s exports, 6.22% of imports, and 10.73% of total merchandise trade.India’s exports to the US, however, dipped for a second straight month in October, falling 8.58% to $6.3 billion. The US had earlier imposed a 25% duty citing trade deficits, estimated at around $46 billion in 2024–25—followed by another 25% penalty over India’s purchase of Russian crude.